Figure a measure to be a sure thing (5)

I believe the answer is:

cinch

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'a sure thing' is the definition.
(thesaurus)

'figure a measure' is the wordplay.
'figure' becomes 'cinc' (I am not sure about this - if you are sure you should believe this answer much more).
'a measure' becomes 'h' (H is an example).
'cinc'+'h'='CINCH'

'to be' is the link.

Can you help me to learn more?

(Other definitions for cinch that I've seen before include "Doddle" , "A walk in the park" , "Something easily done" , "simple job" , "piece of cake" .)

I've seen this clue in the Evening Standard.

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