Crossword Genius

January not starting sunny? Here a soaking's possible (2,4,3)

Ross

I believe the answer is:

on thin ice

I'm a little stuck... Click here to teach me more about this clue!

'here a soaking's possible' is the definition.
I know nothing about this answer so I can't judge whether this works.

'january not starting sunny?' is the wordplay.
I cannot really see how this works, but
an anagram of 'not' is 'ont' which is present in the answer.
'sunny?' could be 'nice' (nice weather) and 'nice' is located in the answer.
The remaining letters 'hi' is a valid word which might be clued in a way I don't see.
This may be the basis of the clue (or it may be nonsense).

Can you help me to learn more?

(Other definitions for on thin ice that I've seen before include "in danger of a soaking?" , "that can make one vulnerable" , "In a difficult position" , "like a daredevil skater?" , "Heading for trouble" .)

I've seen this clue in The Times.
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