Crossword Genius

Probably lost key, alas, in rubbish (2,6,2,3)

Ross

I believe the answer is:

as likely as not

'probably' is the definition.
(I've seen this before)

'lost key alas in rubbish' is the wordplay.
'rubbish' is an anagram indicator (a poor quality or rubbish spelling of the letters).
'lost'+'key'+'alas'+'in'='lostkeyalasin'
'lostkeyalasin' with letters rearranged gives 'AS LIKELY AS NOT'.

(Another definition for as likely as not that I've seen is " Probably".)

I've seen this clue in The Telegraph.
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