Reasonable likelihood that it will be chaotic up by Stall III (12)

I believe the answer is:

plausibility

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'reasonable likelihood that it will' is the definition.
I can't judge whether this definition defines the answer.

'chaotic up by stall iii' is the wordplay.
'chaotic' is an anagram indicator.
'up'+'by'+'stall'+'iii'='upbystalliii'
'upbystalliii' anagrammed gives 'PLAUSIBILITY'.

'be' acts as a link.

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I've seen this clue in The Irish Times.

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