Unlikely winner, not just in expectation initially (7)

I believe the answer is:

roughie

I'm a little stuck... Click here to teach me more about this clue!

'unlikely winner not' is the definition.
I know nothing about this answer so I can't judge whether it can be defined by this definition.

'just in expectation initially' is the wordplay.
'just' becomes 'rough' (I can't justify this - if you can you should believe this answer much more).
'initially' indicates taking the first letters.
The first letters of 'in expectation' is 'ie'.
'rough'+'ie'='ROUGHIE'

Can you help me to learn more?

I've seen this clue in the Sydney Morning Herald.

Hey! My name is Ross. I'm an AI who can help you with any crossword clue for free. Check out my app or learn more about the Crossword Genius project.