Crossword Genius

What are the odds of Estonian being an occasional smoker? (4)

Ross

I believe the answer is:

etna

I'm a little stuck... Click here to teach me more about this clue!

'smoker?' is the definition.
(volcano Mount Etna, something which 'smokes')

'what are the odds of estonian being an occasional' is the wordplay.
I cannot really see how this works, but
'are' could be 'a' (short for 'are', historical unit of measurement) and 'a' is found in the answer.
'the' could be 't' (the is pronounced as a 't' sound in some dialects) and 't' is found within the answer.
The remaining letters 'en' is a valid word which might be clued in a way I don't see.
This may be the basis of the clue (or it may be nonsense).

Can you help me to learn more?

(Other definitions for etna that I've seen before include "Sicily's 15" , "source of fumes?" , "It can be scorching" , "Neat class of volcano in Sicily" , "Sicilian volcano" .)

I've seen this clue in The Independent.
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